9/12/11
Djokovic vs Nadal at the 2011 US Open was an exciting match that was very well played by both tennis greats. It also turned out to be another profitable event to bet on as I again put my money on recent trends rather than unfounded popular assumptions. Admittedly, I am a very casual tennis fan who only watches the finals/semis of major tournaments so clearly I don't know much beyond what I read in the news and the few matches I have previously tuned into.
That said, I am a Nadal fan because I really respect his nitty gritty chase-every-ball-down style of play. I'd likely have been rooting for Nadal if Federer had made it there. It is clear that the story of the last few years has been the increasing vulnerability of the aging Federer, whose once dominating presence in the sport of tennis has been shaken by Nadal's rising stardom. I still recall the day before the 2010 US Open when I got into a semi-heated debate with my British coworker about the growing rivalry at the time, ... "Nadal is nothing compared to Federer. The guy (Nadal) is only good on clay, everybody knows that! Federer is simply unbeatable and he will have no problem getting a few more majors added to his long list of achievements before he retires... this is no rivalry. You want to bet on this?". Then, the trend was a confident Nadal repeatedly proving his ability on other surfaces prior to the US Open and adding to his string of impressive victories by repeatedly stunning Federer on sports biggest stage. I gladly put my money where my mouth was and was able to profit off my misinformed coworker who failed to do his homework, and thus failed to identify a continuation of the trend at the time.
Sport rankings are ephemeral by nature as yesterday's victors frequently become unseatedly without warning due to a host of unpredictable factors, which includes the emergence of a new star from relative obscurity. A few years ago, most people who didn't watch tennis would not know about the Novac Djokovic - I happened to see him play live at the 2008 US Open against Marin Cilic and honestly, I could not see him as championship material at the time. He couldn't even get past Andy fricken Roddick.
Fast forward to today's US Open. Anyone who has been paying attention to recent tennis results would know that Djokovic has had an absolutely stellar 63-2 season. Djokovic's rise to number 1 is further confirmed by his recent victory over Federer in the semis just two days ago and more importantly, his 5 consecutive victories in 2011 over a deflated Nadal (which includes major finals victories at Wimbleton and the Australian open). Let's not mention that the fact that Nadal has been more injury prone (even recently wincing in a post-match interview). Pre-match, I was told the odds were around 60-40 in favor of Djokovic, which I believe to be more than fair odds for the Djoker given what we know above. Although it would be great for the sport if Nadal were able to suddenly reinvent himself against his newfound kryptonite, I doubt it could happen today. To put this in stock terms, this year has been a true breakout for this Serb's stock and way too many Nadal fans were expecting a reversion back to the mean for this particular rivalry... show me some evidence outside of wishful thinking! Fortunately for my British coworker, he has since caught on to the well established trend of Nadal's lead over Federer but unfortunately for him, he once again failed to identify the newer trend... "Federer is done. Nadal is extremely good. He used to beat Djokovic all the time and it's about time this string of losses end. I'm confident Nadal will pull out ahead today, especially with these odds. You want to bet on this?"
Of course I do, and did.
Now that this year's US Open has come to a conclusion, my wallet is bit thicker. My sights are now set on the Mayweather vs Ortiz boxing match this weekend...
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